IBM未來科技趨勢大預言
CNET新聞專區：Michael Kanellos
29/3/2006
原文網址 : http://taiwan.cnet.com/news/software/0,2000064574,20105285,00.htm IBM執行長Sam Palmisano心裡在想什麼?也許他正在苦思：如何掌握感應器市場蓬勃發展的趨勢從中獲利。
IBM研究部門最近向Palmisano作「全球科技展望」(GTO)簡報。簡報時間長達七、八小時，其間，任職於IBM研究部門的科學家向他報告未來三、五年甚至十年後，可能興起的重大科技趨勢。理想的作法是，IBM會想出運用這些趨勢賺錢的方法。
IBM Research策略部副總裁Mahesh Viswanathan說：「這場簡報會每個主題用大約35到50張幻燈片介紹。」
IBM科學家預測，摩爾定律(Moore's Law)至少還會維持十年。到時候，晶片設計師必須在晶片中納入新的結構與化學物，但至少未來十年還不必用更奇特的材料取代目前用的矽質基底。
相形之下，兩年前IBM對矽的未來較不樂觀。但Viswanathan說，工程師持續縮小電晶體的能耐總是讓他驚異。
感應器(Sensors)
政府、大企業和新創公司，都對感應器愈來愈有興趣。感應器可輕易追蹤貨 物、車輛甚至人員的行縱。但感應器蒐集巨量的資料，該如何處理呢?IBM可能開始研究一套方法，把感應器網絡與資料採礦(data mining)技術結合。現在的構想是，把擷取自多重感應器網絡的資料聚集起來，可讓研究員更了解交通模式(traffic pattern)，或測知疫病爆發的初期徵兆。
Application processors(應用程式處理器)
內含數億顆晶片的多核心處理器既已不是天方夜譚，現在要生產晶片、或晶片內含的核心，更具經濟效益。數學處理器和其他特製晶片的市場數年前就已經有了，只是許多功能都被納入一般常用的微處理器。現在鐘擺將朝另一邊擺去，這是因為工作負荷複雜和電晶體預算龐大所致。
Azul Systems和日本物理與化學研究學會研發的加速晶片(accelerator chips)，即為一種應用程式處理器。
人人都可打造軟體
臉型，企業內部只有少數人會寫程式。但Viswanathan說：「現在，人人都是程式設計師。」
IBM和其他公司將推出一些工具，既能簡化程式設計，也能確保用這些工具寫成的應用程式的確可在現有的企業系統環境下順利執行。
服務2.0版
人人都需要服務，而IBM把公司的未來寄託於此。藍色巨人的一大目標，是研究組織的行為模式。IBM研究員承認，這聽起來似乎不是嚴謹的科學，但電腦科學當初興起時，也不被視為一種紮實的學科。史丹福大學的工程學院那時甚至不教授電腦。（唐慧文）
MARCH 9, 2006
Innovation
By Steve Hamm
Thinking the Future, with IBM
At an invitation-only "salon" in New York, Big Blue shared the results of its recent innovation survey and forecast what's ahead for the workplace
By most traditional measures, IBM is one of the most innovative companies in the world. Year after year, it gets more U.S. patents than any other company. It's responsible for many of the key technology breakthroughs in the info-tech industry. And it runs the largest private-sector basic research operations in the world, with more than 3,000 scientists and mathematicians.
But in spite of those accomplishments, the company is by no means complacent. In fact, it seems determined to help lead the way in a new era in which innovation is being fundamentally redefined. "At its core, the nature of innovation is changing. It's global, multi-disciplinary, and collaborative," says IBM (IBM ) Senior Vice-President Ginni Rometty.
Rometty was one of a handful of speakers at a "salon" IBM organized in New York on Mar. 8 to discuss issues that have emerged out of its Global Innovation Outlook project. It's a multi-year effort to get some of the brightest people in business, government, and academia to come up with solutions for business, economic, and social problems. More than 180 organizations have participated so far, in 15 idea-gathering sessions held in New York, San Francisco, Beijing, Zurich, São Paulo, and Bangalore. IBM plans to host another series of salons around the world over the next couple of months.
NO STRINGS. The focus of the New York event was the future of the enterprise. It brought a handful of IBM executives together with an eclectic bunch of panelists, including a college professor who's a video gamer in his spare time, a video gamer who also works for a Silicon Valley startup, and a lawyer who also works for the Wikimedia Foundation.
While they came from very different walks of life, all of the panelists agreed that big changes are afoot -- and that companies and individuals need to size themselves up and figure how to participate. One of the most intriguing ideas was that people will increasingly see themselves as free agents, moving through life from employer to employer and morphing their skills to adapt to changing demands and their own changing interests. Somebody called it an age of "1 billion enterprises."
The best lines of the day, in order of appearance:
Nick D'Onofrio, executive vice-president, innovation & technology, IBM, on how the role of IBM employees is changing: "In the 20th century, at IBM, we were all about engineering and technology. But now, we define innovation differently. We tell our employees, 'You may not be an inventor or a discoverer, but you will be an innovator.'"
Michael Teitelbaum, vice-president, Sloan Foundation, on how small groups can have tremendous power (for example, al Qaeda): "Very small networks can amass global power for business purposes or destructive purposes."
Kevin Werbach, assistant professor, Wharton School, on how companies can innovate and protect their creations in a collaborative environment: "We can't hold intellectual property closer to the vest. The key is having innovation in the culture and driving it out into the market, not holding onto a lot of patents."
Jean-Baptiste Soufron, chief legal officer of Wikimedia, on how people have to prepare themselves to thrive in the new collaborative environment: "The first thing is to be humble, and to realize that you're one in a billion and you can be replaced. Be modest, but be good at what you do."
Helen Cheng, a recent graduate of Stanford University, gamer, and employee of seriousity.com, on what should motivate young graduates: "People who do what they're most interested in will be most successful."
D'Onofrio again, on whether American young people are motivated enough to succeed in a much more competitive global landscape: "This is a big issue for me. I go to India and China and look into their eyes and see a passion. It says, 'I'm going to do better.' But in the U.S. and Europe, you don't see the same passion. It's worrisome."
FISHING FOR IDEAS. IBM doesn't just talk about collaboration -- it practices what it preaches. The company contributes in major ways to open-source software projects and patent commons, and is also democratizing innovation internally. Nine months ago, it started up something called Think Place, a Web site where IBM employees are encouraged to suggest innovations. If the company takes them up, the employees get bonuses. The global services organization, which Rometty co-runs, is about to launch a project called The Innovation Community, where employees, on a voluntary basis, contribute ideas on how to serve clients better.
I spent a few minutes with Rometty after the event. My main question: How does the changing nature of innovation affect her job? Rometty says she'll have to make substantial changes in the way she organizes and leads people in the coming years. "We're facing a dramatic change in the workforce. The challenge for people like me will be to figure out how to motivate the people who will work with us -- many of whom won't even be our employees. There's a war for talent, and it will only become more difficult." And in a war, every innovative edge helps.
